Sky Sports NFL Deal Expires: Will the UK Follow Germany's Broadcasting Blueprint?

NFL UK Broadcasting Rights

As the 2024 NFL season becomes a distant memory, one of the biggest questions facing UK fans isn't which team will make the playoffs; it's where they'll be watching games next year.

Sky Sports' deal for exclusive primetime games expires at the end of this season, whilst DAZN already holds comprehensive streaming rights through 2033.

With Sky's premium slots potentially up for grabs and rumours swirling about new free-to-air partners entering the mix, the broadcasting landscape is set for its biggest shake-up in years.

To understand what's likely to happen, we need to look at how the NFL recently revolutionised its approach in Germany; a model that doubled broadcast revenues and could be heading to the UK.

Current Contractual Status

Sky Sports NFL Contract Expiry

• Sky's five-year deal with the NFL ran from 2020 to 2024

• Sky's NFL contract has expired

DAZN's Position

• DAZN secured a 10-year strategic partnership with the NFL in 2023, running until at least 2033

• In the UK and Ireland, the 6 pm and 9 pm Sunday fixtures are only available on-demand 24 hours post-game, as they are shown live on Sky Sports through an existing rights deal

• The only certainty is that DAZN will offer what it offers currently, as that is locked down for the long term

The German Broadcasting Model: A Strategic Blueprint

The German market provides a compelling model that the NFL may replicate in the UK:

RTL (Free-to-Air Partner)

• RTL and its Nitro TV channel are the exclusive free-to-air TV partners of the NFL in Germany

• Under the RTL agreement, the broadcaster will show exclusive games live each week on the RTL+ streaming service

• The FTA contract provides for almost 80 live games per season

• RTL secured an exclusive free-TV partnership, including up to three live games per week on RTL and Nitro, plus an additional weekly exclusive game on RTL+

DAZN (Premium Pay-TV Partner)

• DAZN will exclusively broadcast one early kickoff time game (7 PM) and one late kickoff time game (10:25 PM) every Sunday. These games will not be available on free-to-air TV

• DAZN will air 36 additional exclusive live games per season compared to 2022-2023

• DAZN will provide coverage of at least five live games per week during the regular season, including two exclusive Sunday afternoon games, and all primetime games live

Financial Success of the German Model

The NFL is understood to have more than doubled its media rights income in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, demonstrating the effectiveness of the split-broadcaster approach.

The NFL is very satisfied with its first year on RTL, with ratings of up to 25 per cent in its core target group and up to 1.6 million viewers during playoff games.

Revenue vs Reach Balance

NFL UK GM Henry Hodgson stated: "We need to look at the whole package, rather than just piece by piece, and understand where the best place is for the NFL to reach the audience at the scale we want to." The key consideration is "the right mix of revenue and reach".

Sky's Current Position

Hodgson confirmed: "Sky has been a fantastic partner, and we have a really good relationship with them. They have a very engaged sports audience that we want to reach. So they're a crucial part of the broadcast mix now, and we hope they might be going forward."

Hodgson explained: "We're working with Sky and other broadcasters in the UK at the moment, and given the league's momentum, we'll have some positive news to share in the coming months."

NFL's International Revenue Strategy

The NFL is considering selling a separate international package that could fetch more than $1 billion in rights fees, suggesting the league actively seeks to maximise international broadcast revenue.

Likely Outcome: A German-Style Split Model

We think the most likely outcome is a German-style split broadcasting model:

1. Sky Sports retains premium pay-TV rights - Similar to DAZN in Germany

   • Exclusive Sunday afternoon games (likely 6 pm and 9 pm slots)

   • Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football

   • Playoffs and Super Bowl

   • Reduced a little from the current comprehensive coverage

2. New free-to-air partner emerges - Similar to RTL in Germany

   • Potential candidates: ITV (already shows Super Bowl), Channel 5 (shows Monday Night highlights), or Channel 4

   • Weekly free-to-air games to maximise reach

   • Highlight shows and ancillary programming

3. DAZN maintains NFL Game Pass - a Comprehensive streaming option

   • All games shown live, which are not being shown on other platforms

   • 24-hour delayed coverage of Sky and other exclusive games

   • International games and expanded content

The Missing Free-to-Air Piece

The NFL's motivation for change becomes clearer when considering what they've already lost. ITV scrapped The NFL Show for the 2024 campaign, leaving fans without a linear round-up for the first time in a decade. This loss of terrestrial presence underlines exactly why the league is motivated to restore free-to-air coverage from 2025.

Yet the potential rewards are significant. Super Bowl LVIII averaged just over one million UK viewers - the highest on record - demonstrating genuine upside if the sport gains more free-to-air exposure.

Amazon: The Wild Card

Whilst Sky and traditional broadcasters dominate the conversation, Amazon is quietly positioning itself in the NFL landscape. Prime Video now controls a US Wild-Card playoff game until 2032 and has signalled interest in other one-off NFL windows.

With NFL Game Pass already available as an add-on channel on Prime Video in the UK, Amazon represents a credible dark horse bidder that could widen the competitive pool beyond Sky and free-to-air broadcasters.

Goodell's Expansion Vision

The stakes extend far beyond the current negotiations. In November 2024, Commissioner Roger Goodell spoke openly about moving to an 18-game season within "the next few years", with up to 16 international games annually.

An expanded calendar would add extra UK-friendly inventory - another powerful lever in negotiations and a signal that this UK deal represents just the beginning of a much larger international strategy.

Strategic Rationale

This model would achieve the NFL's stated objectives:

• Revenue Maximisation: Multiple revenue streams from different broadcasters, following the successful German doubling of income

• Reach Expansion: Free-to-air coverage increases casual viewership and market penetration

• Premium Content Protection: Sky retains valuable primetime slots, justifying continued investment

• Digital Growth: DAZN continues building streaming audience base

Timeline and Negotiation Dynamics

Rights deals can tend to be agreed upon and announced as little as a few days before an event starts, suggesting negotiations may continue until very close to the start of the 2025 season.

The German model's proven success gives the NFL confidence to replicate this approach in the UK, especially given the NFL's recognition that the UK is "a mature market" ready for a more sophisticated broadcasting structure.

What This Means for UK Fans

The evidence strongly suggests that a German-style split broadcasting model will arrive in the UK from 2025. Expect Sky Sports to maintain its role as the premium partner, but with reduced coverage compared to today.

A new free-to-air broadcaster will likely emerge to capture casual viewers and restore the terrestrial presence lost with ITV's departure.

Meanwhile, DAZN's Game Pass will continue providing comprehensive coverage to the hardcore fanbase.

This isn't just about 2025 - it's about positioning the UK as the cornerstone of the NFL's aggressive international expansion. With Goodell eyeing 18-game seasons and 16 international fixtures annually, UK broadcasters are bidding for a front-row seat to American football's global future.

The German template shows this approach works financially, doubling broadcast income whilst expanding reach. For UK fans, the German model would mean more free live games than are currently available, with around 80 free-to-air games per season compared to their limited free coverage.

For Commanders fans, there are several must-watch games to circle on your calendar - check out the full 2025 roadmap for the key fixtures.